National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Russia

A. V. Karsakov, Post-Graduate Student, avkarsakov@mail.ru
I. V. Sharf, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Associate Professor

The relevance of the study is driven by the necessity to substantiate development planning for new fields and those with hard-to-recover hydrocarbon reserves, particularly when facing insufficient initial geological and engineering data of questionable reliability. The objective of this work is to develop and validate a two-stage methodological algorithm for selecting analog fields during development design. This algorithm combines qualitative filtering with a quantitative assessment of similarity degree based on a composite calculation of parameter weighting coefficients. The object of the study is the Paleozoic deposits of a field in Western Siberia. As a result, an enhanced methodological algorithm for analog selection has been proposed. Its distinctive feature involves a combined approach to determining parameter weights, incorporating the coefficient of variation method, partial derivative analysis, and calculation of Sobol’s indices. This ensures a comprehensive consideration of both statistical variability of parameters and their physical impact on filtration processes. Validation of the methodological algorithm confirmed its practical significance, enabling refinement of key design parameters and adjustment of the development system for the target field. The permissible flexibility in the number of analyzed parameters has been established. The proposed methodological algorithm minimizes subjectivity, enables quantitative assessment of inter-object similarity, and facilitates verification of missing design parameters for constructing reliable hydrodynamic models. In the context of national strategic objectives, the proposed algorithm serves as a tool for mitigating investment risks and enhancing project economic efficiency through more justified selection of development systems and oil recovery technologies at early design stages.

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