Mining Institute, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia:

I. E. Semenova, Head of Sector for Rockburst Hazard Prediction at Ore Deposits, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, i.semenova@ksc.ru
I. M. Avetisyan, Senior Researcher, Candidate of Engineering Sciences

The article describes basic approaches and trends in advancement of rock mass stress–strain behavior prediction in rockburst-hazardous mining. The prediction systems based on the dedicated program package Sigma GT are introduced in some Russian mines which operate in very hard rock masses prone to brittle fracture and subjected to gravitational–tectonic stresses. The manmade impact is accompanied in this case by the induced dynamic pressure phenomena. The use of geomechanics prediction systems in mines for more than 10 years proves their high efficiency, first of all, owing to the stress–strain analysis and assessment in real time. The ‘do-it-yourself’ analysis of different mining scenarios with a view to reducing stress concentration, selecting proper mine support systems as well as distressing minimizes risks associated with mining in high-stress rock masses. While being used, the geomechanical prediction program Sigma GT undergoes continuous development, updating and adaptation to specific mining conditions. The urgent tasks of the present day are: complexing of the stress–strain modeling results and monitoring data, which means the seismic monitoring in the first place; construction of correlated different-scale 3D models; fullest inclusion of structural discontinuities of rock masses; elaboration of guidance package on safe mining with regard to the geomechanical prediction results; development of instruments for determining current and prognostic parameters of rockburst-hazardous zones based on a set of factors in geological information systems of operating mines.

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