Nosov Magnitogorsk state technical university (Magnitogorsk, Russia):

M. I. Rumyantsev, Cand. Eng., Prof., Dept. of Material Processing, e-mail: mikhail.rumyantsev54@bk.ru
O. N. Tulupov, Dr. Eng., Prof., Vice Rector for Research and Innovation, e-mail: o.tulupov@mail.ru

The authors of this paper propose to use such additional characteristics as ‘Relevance’ and ‘Effectiveness’ when analysing a simulation model. These indicators provide a model characterization within the entire range of variations of the output parameters of the object. Relevance is defined as a degree to which the ideal trend matches the real one on the relevance chart showing the predicted and actual values of a simulated parameter. Effectiveness is defined as a proportion of observations of the predicted values of a parameter deviating from the actual values with a relative error not exceeding the specified level to the total number of observations. The paper describes an example of a model for predicting the rolling force required to produce large plates in plate mills and of how to build and analyse such model. The first feature that differentiates this model from the existing ones is that a more detailed differentiation of rolling instances in terms of height of the deformation zone is taken into account when calculating the stress state index in the deformation zone. The second distinctive feature is that L. V. Andreyuk’s modified formula was used for yield stress calculations. Data from two-stand plate mill 2800 and single-stand plate mill 5000 were used to analyse the quality of the model. The rolling force calculations performed with the developed model had a relative error within –15.1 to +20.8%. The model showed an 11% increase in relevance and a 48% increase in effectiveness.

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