Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia):

Puchkov L. A., Correspondent Member of Russian Academy of Sciences, phone: +7 (495) 743-14-88

Mineral-energetic consumption means the consumption of mineral products, used for manufacturing of energy: coal, oil, gas and uranium. Time dynamics of mineral-energetic consumption reflects the falls and rises of the world economy. Analysis of dynamics of mineral-energetic consumption for the period since 1985 till 2012 has shown the presence of basic increasing of mineral-energetic consumption, proportional to the planet population, and fluctuation, connected with wavy rises and falls of economy. It is shown, that basic increasing of mineral-energetic consumption is the nature law, which fixes the limit level of mineral-energetic consumption, which exceeding leads to overconsumption and to unstable crisis situation of the whole economy. The mineral-energetic consumption falls to the basic level during the crisis development, which returns the economy to the stage of stable crisis-free development. The reasons, which generaly explain the economic crisises, are basically only the initiating factors, because in the system aspect they are not such global as the growth of population and mineral-energetic resources. There is given the analysis of current status of mineral-energetic consumption and forecast of oncoming crisis. There is shown that in 2011, the specific mineral-energetic consumption per head in the world was by 16% higher than the basic level. Such values have already formed the critical mass of mineral-energetic consumption (higher than in the previous periods of development of the world economy). According to this, the intensive fall of mineral-energetic consumption will be started in the nearest time (perhaps in 2014-2015). The fall of mineralenergetic consumption will last 9-9.5 years and will be eual to 9.4%, according to the level at the beginning of the fall. The Earth population to the end of the fall will be near 8 bln. people. This article also gives the analysis of disproportion of mineral-energetic consumption between countries and influence of disproportion on the income per head.

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