OJSC “Teсhsnabexport”

M. A. Aboimov, Counselor of a Chief Executive Officer, Executive Officer of Analysis Center of Strategic Possibilities and Risks, e-mail: AboimovM@tenex.ru

National Research Nuclear University of Moscow Engineering Physics University (МIFI)

S. G. Klimanov, Assistant Professor

A. V. Kryanev, Professor

G. V. Lukin, Assistant Professor

V. V. Kharitonov, Professor

Long-term dynamics of the prices on the spot market of natural uranium concentrate U3O8 is considered. The spot prices for natural uranium differ high volatility, comparable with volatility of the prices for oil, unlike the prices of long-term bilateral contracts which are stable. The uranium market undergoes qualitative changes: natural uranium has considerably come nearer to a class of the classical exchange goods for which are characteristic the big number of participants of the auctions, occurrence of specialized share indexes (on nuclear subjects), presence of a specialized trading platform. Dynamics the spot prices all will be more appreciable to influence a price level on long-term contracts which price formulas even more often contain references to quotations the spot prices at the moment of delivery. Influence of various factors on level, trends and the prices volatility for a natural uranium concentrate is shown. As such «external factors» were tested: euro/dollar quotations, oil cost, cost of gas, etc. Is offered economic-mathematical model of forecasting of the prices on the spot market of the natural uranium concentrate, based on an effective method of the metric analysis developed in NNRU MEPhI. Mathematical formulas for calculation of forecast values of the prices are given. Also as well as in classical methods of forecasting of the time processes, the offered scheme of forecasting uses autoregressive model for which the scheme of multidimensional interpolation further is under construction. The model on horizon of 1–6 months of forecasting of the prices of a natural uranium concentrate gives an error within 5–25% depending on volatility an initial time number of the prices. The prognosis model allows to consider in an adaptable mode forecasts of experts about possible events in the future, capable to affect the future change of price levels and trends. The developed model can be used for forecasting of behavior of a wide range of time series.

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