Institute of Mining of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

A. V. Zubkov, Chief Researcher, Doctor of Engineering Sciences, e-mail: stress.igd@mail.ru

I. V. Biryuchev, Junior Researcher

R. V. Krinitsin, Researcher

The following specialists of the Institute of Mining Matter of the Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences participated in this work: Senior Researchers, Candidates of Engineering Sciences Ya. I. Lipin, O. Yu. Smirnov, S. V. Khudyakov and Junior Researcher K. V. Selin.

The behaviour of stressed-deformed rock mass state in the upper earth crust part in time domain that is connected with solar activity and cyclicity are shown. The analysis of a number of large accidents in mines and other objects, that have taken place in the years of maximum rock mass pressure is adduced.

As a result of geomechanical investigations in the Ural mines it was set up that the value of gravitation-tectonic stresses in the rock mass includes the variable (pulsation) component; its variation cycle constitutes 9-12 years and corresponds to solar activity and solar constant cycles. On relative changing the Sun diameter to (3,5–5,2)10^–4, the Earth rock mass deforms in step by the value of (2–6)10^–4 and pulsation stresses reach 10–20 MPa. The same phenomenon is observed in Siberian mines and world-wide mining regions that points to the Earth crust periodic expansion and oblateness that is to changing the Earth diameter for 3-5 km. This is the main reason for earthquakes periodic activization and break-down of the constructions erected in the rock mass.

According to astrophysics prognosis by 2018 it can be expected that ε₀ = 9 · 10^–4 and by 2028 ε₀ = 11 · 10^–4. If the Earth becomes deformed like this, then σ_тп will reach (30÷50) MPa. The consequence of this phenomenon will be:

considerable destruction of engine-rooms at hydro-electric stations (HEE) erected in deep canyons;

destruction of permanent workings with rock bursts, coal and gas outbursts, occurring everywhere;

catastrophic earthquakes;

rock mass displacements and overlaps in surface faults with multiple intensive destruction of buildings and pipe-lines.

Such events moving in the nearest 10 years will require:

in-ordinary solving geomechanic, technical and technological problems for protection subsurface and surface structures destructions;

periodic maps rescaling, etc.

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