Saint-Petersburg Mining University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia:

S. V. Tsirel, Chief Researcher, Doctor of Engineering Sciences
V. A. Noskov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, VAnoskov@yandex.ru

Apatit Company, Kirovsk, Russia:
P. A. Korchak, Chief Specialist, Technical Development Department
S. A. Zhukova, Leading Geophysical Engineer, Geophysical Monitoring Bureau, Rockburst Prediction and Prevention Services, Kirov Mine

The authors propose evaluation of economic efficiency of complicated geodynamic situation prediction and demonstrate potential benefits of accounting for geodynamic events when planning ore production and improving geodynamics assessment means. In the authors’ opinion, the economic efficiency of prediction of geodynamic events and application of preventive measures is composed of three major constituents. The first constituent is the evaluation of economic efficiency of preventive control expressed in terms of saving or reduction in loss of direct and embodied labor. The second constituent is finding of extra benefits or, in other words, potentiality of mining cost saving with the extended list of the preventive control measures, or by improving available means of geodynamic monitoring and rock mass state prediction. The third constituent is the reduction in loss connected with mining operations in most geodynamically complicated areas or, vice versa, with resignation of mining in the most hazardous and unprofitable sites of a deposit. Despite sufficiently high benefits, the authors have come to a conclusion that the implemented research covers only the most evident economic aspects of geodynamic safety of mining. The more essential, although not so simple for evaluation, benefits of successful prediction and prevention of geodynamic events in a mine are: reduction in risk of fatal cases in the course of geodynamic events; achievability of high production output and concentration of mining operations; feasibility of change in mine project, mining sequence and reserves appraisal; and discard of the most geodynamically hazardous mining sites.

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