Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia:

Puchkov L. A., Correspondent Member of Russian Academy of Sciences, phone: +7 (495)743-14-88

Forecasts of global energetic consumption (coal, oil, gas and uranium), which have the defining value for planning of development of global economics, are based on long-term analysis of internal parameters and interconnections of global system of mineral-energetic consumption. Such methods are valuable, because they define the dynamics of development of economics of countries, regions, economic blocks and weight of constituents of mineral products in total mineral-energetic balance of modern economics. However, such differentiated methods do not take into account the system-wide regularities of development of mineral-energetic consumption and lead to wrong results on the global level. In the proposed forecast methods, world mineral-energetic consumption is considered as unite system, which movement should correspond to main principle of natural evolution – principle of least action. This means, that mineral-energetic consumption is limited by the possibilities of natural provision of development of civilization and should correspond to the main tasks of natural evolution. This article shows that such main task is provision of growth of Earth population, which nowadays is on the stage of intensive hyperbolic growth. There was made a definition that purposes of growth of global economics, defined by economic indices, are in contradiction with natural evolution and lead to economic crisis. According to this, economic crisis is mostly defined by excess mineral-energetic consumption, when remaining reasons are secondary. On the basis of this, there is given the forecast of economic crisis of 2014—2023, which potential value has already been formed as a result of incorrectly defined purposes. There is also given the long-term forecast of mineral-energetic consumption for the period from 2023 till 2070. There is given the comparative analysis with existing forecasts and, in particular, with forecast of US Energу Information Administration (EIA). There is shown that EIA forecast leads to further excess consumption of mineral-energetic products and can't be realized in connection with existing deviations from natural development purposes.

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