Moscow State Mining University (Moscow, Russia):

Petrosov A. A., Professor, Doctor of Engineering Sciences, phone: +7 (499) 230-25-92
Potemkina E. A., Economist-Manager

As a value equivalent and indicator of status of the world economy, the gold price is a basis of substantiation of reasonability of investments in mastering and development of gold deposits. There was defined that the gold price is decreased in the period of total rising of the world economy. On the other hand, in the period of fall, recession and economic crisis, the price grows to the flex point, characterizing the change of direction of development dynamics. Authors describe the long-term forecast of tendencies and trends of world prices of gold, developed on the basis of dynamics of prices for the period since 1983 till 2012 by calculation least-square method with use of approximating models of forecast. There is also carried out the comparative analysis of forecasts of other researches and organizations. In conclusion, authors have a statement that, taking into account the total buoyant dynamics of forecast of gold price till 2020-2022 and rather high level of its price in the first years after the bend of «Kondratiev wave», the nearest years are the most favourable for large investments in industrial mastering of new deposits of gold (including the Siberia and Far East regions, which are difficult to access). High price of gold will make it possible to do the economically efficient and rather reliable compensation of invested means. Taking into account the pay-back periods, the delay of investment for 5 years is more problematic. At the same time, the delay of investment for 10 years and more is economically low-productive, which will correspond to the downward tendency of the gold price.

1. Petrosov A. A., Potemkina E. A. Dinamika mirovoy ekonomiki i ee vliyanie na formirovanie tseny zolota (Dynamics of the world economy and its influence on formation of the price of gold). Nauchnyy vestnik Moskovskogo Gosudarstvennogo Gornogo Universiteta — Science Bulletin of Moscow State Mining University. 2013. Available at : http://vestnik.msmu.ru (accessed: September 18, 2013).
2. Akaev A. A. Sovremennyy finansovo-ekonomicheskiy krizis v svete teorii innovatsionno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya ekonomiki i upravleniya innovatsionnym protsessom. Monitoring globalnykh i regionalnykh riskov (Modern financial-economic crisis in the light of theory of innovation-technological development of economics and management of innovation process. Monitoring of global and regional risks). Moscow : URSS, 2009, pp. 141–162.
3. Glazev C. Yu. Vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya tekhniko-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh strukturnykh izmeneniy mirovoy ekonomiki: nauchnyy doklad (Possibilities and limitations of technical and economic development of Russia in the conditions of structural changes of the world economy: science report). Moscow : State University of Management, 2008, 91 p. Available at : http://www.glazev.ru/ (accessed: September 18, 2013).
4. Grinin L. E., Korotaev A. V. Kondratevskie volny: aspekty i perspektivy (Kondratiev waves: aspects and prospects). Moscow : Uchitel, 2012, pp. 59–108.
5. Petrosov A. A. Strategicheskoe planirovanie, prognozirovanie, ekonomicheskie riski gornogo proizvodstva (Strategic planning, forecasting, economic risks of mining industry). Moscow : Gornaya kniga, 2009, 684 p.
6. Petrosov A. A. Gornyi Zhurnal — Mining Journal, 2007, No. 12, pp. 51–53.
7. Belkin V. A. Prognozirovanie ekonomicheskikh i politicheskikh krizisov na osnove tochek peregiba krivoy solnechnoy aktivnosti (Forecasting of economic and political crises on the basis of flex points of solar activity). Nauchnyy zhurnal «Ekonomika, Finansy, Rynok» Chelyabinskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta — Scientific magazine «Economy, Finance, Market» of Chelyabinsk State University. Available at: http://publications.csu.ru/doc/2008/3-1.html (accessed: September 18, 2013).
8. Belkin V. A. Vzaimosvyaz tsiklov solnechnoy aktivnosti i tsiklov osnovnykh makroekonomicheskikh pokazateley (Interconnection of cycles of solar activity and cycles of basic macroeconomic indices). Materialy dvadtsat sedmoy Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii (Materials of the 27-th International scientific and practical conference). Chelyabinsk : Ural Social-Economic Institute of Academy of Labor and Social Relationships, 2010, pp. 45–49.
9. Agentstvo prognozirovaniya ekonomiki (Agency of forecasting of economy). Available at: http://apecon.ru/content/blogcategory/30/135/ (accessed: September 18, 2013).
10. Ministerstvo finansov Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation). Available at: http://minfin.com.ua/2011/07/18/418703/ (accessed: September 09, 2013).
11. Treyd rum. Prognoz tseny zolota (Traders room. Forecast of gold price). Available at: http://tradersroom.ru/glavnye-novosti/deutsche-bank-ag-povysil-prognoz-po-rostu-zolota-i-serebra.html (accessed: September 18, 2013).