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ArticleName Technology foresights for coal industry in Russia up to 2040. Part I: Forecasts of Coal Production and Prices by Price Scenarios on the World Oil Market up to 2040
DOI 10.17580/gzh.2019.07.01
ArticleAuthor Plakitkin Yu. A., Plakitkina L. S., Diyachenko K. I.

Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia:

Yu. A. Plakitkin, Head of the Center for Innovative Development in Energy Sector, Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences
L. S. Plakitkina, Head of the Research Center for Coal Industry and Russia and in the World, Candidate of Engineering Sciences,
K. I. Diyachenko, Senor Researcher, Research Center for Coal Industry and Russia and in the World, Candidate of Engineering Sciences


This part of the article reviews stages of Industry-4.0 project implementation in the coal industry. There are three key stages effectible in the coal industry in the long-range: digital automation of coal mining, washing and handling; Big Data-based management and pattern recognition (Internet of Things intelligent network arrangement); creation and introduction of artificial brain and robots (industrial cyber-physical system engineering). The main technologies involved in Industry-4.0 are discussed, and their effect on performance of the coal industry is assessed. The rate of introduction of the discussed stages is directly governed by the world energy market conjuncture set, in particular, by scenarios of advancement of the coal industry. For this reason, the authors forecast this advancement by two scenarios (innovation and conservative), depending on predicted oil prices up to 2040. The innovation scenario provides implementation of all three stages of technological development by 2040. The conservative scenario mostly assumes inertia development in the coal industry, with partial implementation of stages 1 and 2 by 2040, and with transition to large-scale engineering of cyber-physical systems in the distant future. For each scenario, coal production is forecasted per basins and deposits in Russia up to 2040. The predicted coal outputs are obtained using the simulation model named Production of Coal designed at the Energy Research Institute, RAS. The model takes into account planned performance of coal mines and holdings in terms of commissioning of new capacities, launching of new production, technical upgrading, closure and sale of structural subdivisions. For the forecasts of coal production dynamics, predicted price levels for coal are set per basins, deposits and grades of coal in Russia using the model Marketcoal developed at the Energy Research Institute, RAS. The model includes regional volumes of coal mining in 2000–2040, current prices of coal (on-site) and fluctuations of global oil market price.
This study was partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research in the framework of project No. 18-010-00467: Economic Indicators and Technology Parameters for Coal Industry ion Russia up to 2035 upon the Change in the Vector for Global Technological Innovation due to Industry-4.0 Program Implementation.

keywords Free market price, Russia, coal requirement, coal production forecasts, coal price forecasts, coal basins, coal deposits

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